The election campaign didn’t even need to begin for the National Disability Insurance Scheme to become an election issue. Predictably, the sparks flying between Labor Treasurer Jim Chalmers and the Coalition's Finance spokesperson Jane Hume just obscure the genuine urgency facing more than 650,000 Australians who depend on the NDIS every day.

Hume's seemingly innocuous remark on Sky News — that NDIS spending has "run out of control"—was precisely the political tinder Labor needed. As the creator of the scheme, the government believes it has an advantage whenever disability is discussed. It was searching for a way to ignite disability as an election issue and Hume's statement provided exactly the opportunity it wanted.

Hume’s original statement was measured. She pointed out the positive, that spending growth had been cut back from 14 percent annually to around eight percent. But then she went further by suggesting there might be room to further manage expenditure, aligning it closer to broader economic growth.

But calm doesn't sell in politics.

Chalmers immediately seized upon her comments, conjuring up a terrifying vision of wholesale cuts. With precision honed from years of political combat, he described the Coalition’s approach as something that would "send a shiver up the spine" of every Australian dependent on the scheme. Linking funding to Australia’s currently anaemic GDP growth rate of 1.3 percent would, Chalmers argued, gut vital services.

The Coalition rapidly pushed back, accusing Chalmers of political exaggeration and deliberate scaremongering. Their clarification—that Hume’s comments referred broadly to general budget management rather than specific cuts to the NDIS—was predictable but hardly reassuring. After all, ambiguity is fertile ground for fear.

The point is that both Chalmers and Hume are correct. Even at its current rate of growth (around 8 percent) the cost of the scheme is far exceeding the growth of the rest of the economy (closer to 2 percent).

Both parties insist they are guardians of the NDIS, yet both exploit it for political leverage.

Labor paints itself as the scheme’s stalwart defender, promising tough action against fraud and financial mismanagement, championing responsible cuts around the edges without harming frontline services. Even Prime Minister Albanese has, however, described the scheme as teetering "on the brink”, raising questions over future funding.

The Coalition on the other hand promises fiscal responsibility and efficiency. They carefully couch intentions in generalities and hint at administrative tightening rather than direct cuts—assurances that provide cold comfort to nervous advocates. Amid all this rhetorical fog genuine reform proposals remain elusive.

Disability advocates and recipients are understandably wary. They've heard such promises before. The prospect of tightening budgets inevitably raises fears of compromised care. With projected costs ballooning towards an estimated (but completely unsustainable) $93 billion by 2033, it's clear reform is not just inevitable but critical.

The political gamesmanship between Chalmers and Hume risks obscuring the essential truths: the NDIS is both necessary and imperfect, crucial yet unsustainable without thoughtful change. The scheme has ballooned well beyond original estimates; fixing it demands more than fiery exchanges and strategic ambiguity.

As the political noise escalates, advocates and participants remain caught in the crossfire. What they deserve—indeed, what they need—is clarity, transparency, and genuine bipartisan commitment. Both sides should remember the stakes are not simply electoral but human.

Guardian - Jim Chalmers says Coalition hints at aggressive NDIS cuts will ‘send a shiver up the spine’ of recipients 

SBS - 'Come clean': Treasurer Jim Chalmers demands Coalition clarify proposal to slash NDIS

News - Liberal senator Jane Hume eyes more spending cuts to the NDIS 

Sky - ‘Out of control’: Coalition eyeing potential NDIS spending cuts to address ballooning costs

West Australian - Coalition sees ‘more to do’ on reining in NDIS as Jane Hume flags spending growth cuts